Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. The big boys will take share of subscribers, or bid up the cost of content.
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"Of all the people who want to be in the business - Google, Amazon - they're smaller by far. "Netflix is merely a conduit," Pachter says. Everyone is competing with Netflix."īut if this turns into a clash of titans, Netflix is still a small player battling much larger and richer giants. "In a broad sense, the rivals aren't competing with each other. "Netflix is the first and the biggest," Bagga says.
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In contrast, Google's movie offerings on YouTube and Amazon's streaming catalog are still new and fairly paltry compared with Netflix's arsenal. Netflix's global subscriber base grew almost 70% over the past year, to 23.6 million users.
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Right now, no one else has cracked the code. Landing Hulu would give any of them a strong beachhead for challenging Netflix.
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The list of interested potential Hulu buyers includes Google, Microsoft ( MSFT, Fortune 500), Amazon, Yahoo ( YHOO, Fortune 500) and nearly every other tech giant, plus telecoms like AT&T ( T, Fortune 500) and Verizon ( VZ, Fortune 500). ( DIS, Fortune 500) Chief Executive Robert Iger said at a conference last week that Hulu's owners - who include Disney - are "committed to selling" it. In another bit of uncertainty, Netflix's most direct competitor, Hulu, is on the block. At the end of the first quarter, Amazon ( AMZN, Fortune 500) had almost $7 billion in cash, and Google ( GOOG, Fortune 500) had a whopping $37 billion. Netflix ( NFLX) had a $161 million profit last year on sales of $2.2 billion, and it ended last quarter with $342 million in cash on hand.īut Netflix's rivals have much bigger wallets. "It's going to come down to who has the ability and the willingness to write big checks. "The cost of content is going to go up, no doubt about it," Bagga says. On the other hand, the company has the money and motivation to spend more to keep its rapidly growing subscriber base happy.
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"They weren't paying attention to streaming at all, but now they see an opportunity to monetize. "Studios are starting to put their foot down," says ThinkEquity senior analyst Atul Bagga. The deal runs through early 2012, but the Sony/Starz standoff could accelerate the renewal talks.Ġ:00 / 3:27 Comcast CEO: Why Netflix won't kill us In a letter to shareholders earlier this year, Netflix called the Starz arrangement "one of our most important deals," because it's one of the few that gives Netflix access to relatively recent films. Starz' catalog of Disney movies available for online streaming is on the verge of triggering a similar contractual cap, the newspaper reported. Once Netflix' audience exceeded the cap, the contract was null.
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Back in 2008, Netflix struck a four-year deal with Starz that gave it streaming access to Starz' offerings.īut Starz' deal with Sony included a cap on the number of subscribers who can watch Sony movies online, a source told the LA Times. In a blog post, Netflix pinned the blame on a "temporary contract issue" between Sony and Starz, a pay cable network that licenses Sony's movie catalog. Netflix subscribers got a taste of the studios' new hardball approach last month, when hundreds of Sony ( SNE) movies - including high-profile titles like "The Social Network" and "Salt" - abruptly vanished from Netflix's "watch now" catalog. But you don't have as much leverage when you suddenly have competition." Netflix expands to 43 new countries "Netflix had the power when they were the only bidder. "The content owners realize they can't give Netflix all the leverage," he says. This time around, Pachter says, those costs could increase more than tenfold.
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Studios and MTV to license big TV and film catalogues for about $5 million to $10 million per year. When streaming video was new, Netflix was able to secure contracts with the likes of Warner Bros. Pachter predicts Netflix's streaming content licensing costs will rise from $180 million in 2010 to a whopping $1.98 billion in 2012.
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"Netflix has another year or two on most of these contracts, and then the game completely changes," says Michael Pachter, analyst at Wedbush Securities. That spells trouble for Netflix's streaming content costs.